Just look at that beautiful graph if you want to feel optimistic about Obama’s chances of thrashing McCain this November. It’s the meta analysis of all current state polling, as done by the Princeton Election consortium and basically shows McCain has no chance of winning whatsoever. Of course, predictions don’t have to come true and elections aren’t won until they’re over, but I do think this shows the fundamental reality of this presidental election: it’s Obama’s to lose.
Edmund Schluessel
August 7, 2008 at 4:04 amI have to point out that a comparable graph for Kerry would have looked the same in August of 2004 — his numbers from the swift boating didn’t really take a huge hit until late August. I’d agree that the 2004 was Kerry’s election to lose, just as 2000 was Gore’s to lose. (Also, if I trust my friend who was an election official in Ohio, Kerry won it anway.)
The broader problem is that these predictor sites (270towin.com is a fun one that lets you generate possible outcomes) treat poll results as straight independent probabilities, or probabilities with a cutoff beyond which they’re treated as certainties. While I won’t say there’s a huge chance of Utah going Democrat, we have to recognize that the outcomes in some places are coupled; Colorado and New Mexico, the Dakotas and Montana, the burned-out Indiana-Ohio-Michigan part of the rust belt, will tend to vote together, if not necessarily then in broad strokes.
That said, the situation on the ground is very much in Obama’s favor. He needs the Kerry states; plus Iowa; plus any *one* of Colorado, Indiana, Ohio, Virginia, or (Nevada + New Hampshire). That gives the Democrats the fabled 269-269 tie and a win via the House.
This is, of course, assuming Nancy Pelosi isn’t the special kind of political idiot who’ll trade the White House for the promise of some concessions on tarriffs and education funding.
Balakirev
August 7, 2008 at 9:17 amGive Obama a chance. He’s voted in favor of telecom spying, stated he endorses faith-based initiatives, and has a lot of plans for the MidEast that don’t sound very different from the current plans for the MidEast. I’m afraid he’s doing what he can to lose the election, part of that wonderful 21st Century Democratic tradition. Oh, and not going negative on McCain: why, of course not. Mustn’t do anything to win; no sir!