If At First You Don’t Succeed, Freep Like F*ckery

Has a desperate Gordon Brown activated his last-chance strategy of freeping the election?

votessack.jpg

I hate to say I told you so (not that it ever stopped me) but… from this evenings Guardian front page:

The result of the general election may not be confirmed until late on Friday because the electoral system is struggling to process verification checks on a record number of postal votes, officers have warned.

Councils have reported applications for postal votes up by 60% in some areas, and with a new system of checking signatures and dates of birth against applications – and only 11 days between the deadline for applications and polling day – administrators say there could be delays.

[…]

The surge in postal votes has also raised concerns about electoral fraud, although the 50 allegations currently being investigated are mainly confined to the local elections are also being held in some areas tomorrow.

John Turner, the chief executive of the Association of Electoral Administrators, said: “If returning officers receive sackfuls of postal votes tomorrow, it’s going to put serious delays in the system because they will have to focus on verification before they start counting votes.

Me last week:

Poll Fraud 2010 – Let The Vote Rigging Begin!

Never mind, Gordon, even when the election looks well and truly lost, there’s always voting fraud…

[…]

The 2005 election, and specifically Birmingham 2005, was described by election observers as the dirtiest UK election ever, and that was down to Labour:

Vote-riggers exploited weaknesses in the postal voting system to steal thousands of ballot papers and mark them for Labour, helping the party to take first place in elections to Birmingham City Council.

They believed that their cheating would be hidden for ever in the secrecy of the strong boxes where counted votes are stored, never suspecting that a judge would take the rare step of smashing the seals and tracing the ballots back to the voters.

[…]

They coldly exploited communities where many cannot speak English or write their names. They forced what the judge called “dishonest or frightened” postmen into handing over sacks of postal ballots. They seem to have infiltrated the mail service: several voters gave evidence that their ballot papers were altered to support Labour after they put them in the post.

That’s not to say the Tories haven’t also been up to electoral shenanigans:

5 June 2006 The Times reported that the police in Coventry were investigating allegations that there had been personation offences in the ward of Foleshill at the local elections in May 2006 and that there had also been postal voting fraud. An election petition was lodged at the High Court by the defeated Labour councillor in the ward giving the names and addresses of ten voters whose identities were apparently stolen:

The Times has seen passports of three voters, a veteran Labour Party member and a young couple, which indicate that they were out of the country on election day, May 4. Documents also seen by the newspaper show that staff in polling stations in Coventry that day clearly marked the three down as having turned up and voted. The Conservatives won the ward, Foleshill, by six votes after a recount, one of two gainsthat turned a deadlocked council into one with a slender Tory lead.

Labour has conveniently left most of the loopholes that have allowed it to manipulate the vote firmly in place, despite numerous reports from such august bodies as the Joseph Rowntree Trust, fromACPO & the Electoral Commission, and most recently from Parliament itself, all pointing out the ease and prevalence of vote rigging. From the parliamentry report:

• Experienced election observers have raised serious concerns about how well UK election procedures measure up to international standards.

• There have been at least 42 convictions for electoral fraud in the UK in the period 2000–2007.

• Greater use of postal voting has made UK elections far more vulnerable to fraud and resulted in several instances of large-scale fraud.

• There is widespread, and justifiable, concern about both the comprehensiveness and the accuracy of the UK’s electoral registers – the poor state of the registers potentially compromises the integrity of the ballot.

• There is a genuine risk of electoral integrity being threatened by previously robust systems of electoral administration having reached ‘breaking point’ as a result of pressures imposed in recent years.

• Public confidence in the electoral process in the UK was the lowest in Western Europe in 1997, and has almost certainly declined further as a result of the extension of postal voting.

• The benefits of postal and electronic voting have been exaggerated, particularly in relation to claims about increased turnout and social inclusion.

• There is substantial evidence to suggest that money can have a powerful impact on the outcome of general elections, particularly where targeted at marginal constituencies over sustained periods of time.

• Outside of ministerial circles, there is a widespread view that a fundamental overhaul of UK electoral law, administration and policy is urgently required.

The Labour government may have made a show of reform with these postal vote verification procedures, but that’s all it is, a show, a bit of window dressing. Why change a voting system whose lack of integrity they’re exploiting to the full? And do we really think they’re not exploiting that lack of integrity today in 2010? A reported 60% surge in postal votes says to me they are.

A Glimpse Of Britain’s Future

Syntagma Square filled with strikers

Will UK voters, like the Greeks, be storming Parliament this time next year?

Scuffles between public sector workers and Greek MAT riot police units broke out in Syntagma Square, outside the Greek parliament, on May 5 2010, the BBC World Service reported from Athens.

As hardcore elements wearing motorcycle helmets and gas masks took over the front lines of the demonstration, the riot escalated. Petrol bombs, tear gas, explosions and plumes of thick black smoke were visible around the square as protesters clashed with authorities.

The demonstration, which was peaceful at the beginning, gradually became more heated as protesters attempted to charge up the stairs toward the parliament building itself.

As a general strike started to paralyse Athens, following the austerity measures, German chancellor Angela Merkel said that the future of the euro zone was at stake if a 110 billion euro bail-out rescue package from the European Union and International Monetary Fund for Greece failed to go through.

Not one of the three major parties in tomorrow’s UK General Election has come clean about exactly how they plan to reduce the UK’s own 167 billion budget deficit, but if UK voters really want to know, they can just look at the austerity plan imposed on Greece.

Understandably those affected – ie not the rich but the average Vassili or Eleni – are not happy:

Angry Greeks ‘carrying the can’ for politicians

Like the sting of police tear gas, popular anger hangs heavy in the air as protesters take to the streets of Athens, for the third time in less than a week.

Some Europeans have been surprised by the extent of Greeks’ anger over government cuts in wages, pensions and increases in VAT – all measures needed to get the Greek economy back from the brink of default.

The measures are a condition for the huge bailout agreed by the IMF and EU, amounting to loans to Greece worth 110bn euros (£95bn; $146bn).

Why are Greek people so angry? From the outside, it looks like a spendthrift country getting what it deserves in painful cuts to public spending.

At street level, however, the anger stems from a sense of injustice. Many feel that the average citizen is now paying the price for corruption and government spending that they did not benefit from.

I’m feeling more and more angry every day, because those who got us into this mess are not held responsible
Thrasyvo Paxinos
Teacher

A civil servant in the finance ministry spoke on condition of anonymity. “Greek people are willing to contribute and make sacrifices. The vast majority of people do want to contribute to ease the economic problems of our country,” he said.

“But first of all they want to stop political corruption. So if we see the people responsible for this being brought to justice, we are really willing to pay and make sacrifices.”

“In the past I’ve seen government offices or committees being set up which don’t actually do anything. They are designed only to give important political supporters a wage. In the ministry we’ve highlighted these and said ‘Really, don’t do this! We can’t afford it!’ But no one listens.”

“Also we knew for years in the ministry about the wrong figures being shown to the world about our GDP and our debt. We protested to our seniors but again no one would listen. We are very unhappy about it – taking to the streets is really our only option.”

At least the Greeks have the courage to fight back against a neoliberal austerity plan meant oonly to protect the integrity of the Euro to the benefit of EU founder members like Germany and France.

I’ve a feeling that when Greek-style austerity hits Britain, (and it will – how else are Labour, the Tories or LibDems to fund their spending plans?) all the British will do is moan about it and turn back to Sky Plus for comfort.

(Note: sorry about the on the hoof editing, my preview function is screwed)

Comment of The Day: Brown’s Coming Portillo Moment

I can’t wait for Friday. Why? Because I predict on Friday we’ll all be saying ‘Where were you when Gordon Brown realised he’d lost the election for Labour?”

Because lose it he will, and if you want to know why, read this comment by princesschipchops, in response to Brown’s last-ditch yet futile attempt to recover the Guardianista vote:

Mr. Brown – I voted for you in 1997. I cried when Labour won and finally 18 years of horrendous Tory rule were over. I was not alone. At the time I worked in the private sector in Finance and earned good money but I always believed in fair and progressive taxation – even if it hit me personally in the pocket. I believed in a fairer society and re-distribution. My euphoria did not last long.

Many things soured my view of your party. Firstly when you reneged upon your promise to reform the voting system and instead clung onto FPTP for the sake of staying in power. Then smaller things such as the lack of enforcing employer contributions in the supposed fantastic new Stakeholder pensions. Introducing torturous tax credits instead of just upping the tax free amount to something decent. And then spreading those tax credits to the middle classes who did not need them.

Of course there was Iraq. I marched with millions – yes millions – all of whom were ignored. And so hundreds of thousands have died. So Labour lost my vote.

However if you had taken over and shown a change in direction towards something remotely like socialist or even liberal and progressive policies then I would have given you my vote again.

But you did not. You have continued to court the ground just a smidgen to the left of the Tories – which puts your party pretty to the right in my book. You talk of aspiration and you demonise the poorest and most vulnerable.

Instead of tackling the wholesale destruction of communities blighted by Thatcher you ignored them. And then, in a breathtaking display of inhumanity by your party – blamed them. Suddenly those living in areas suffering long term unemployment were to blame – you spoke in the language of the Daily Mail and other right wing rags.

Worse, you then started to target the sick and disabled, bringing in the most sweeping and destructive welfare reforms ever seen.

I know of people who are ill and vulnerable and who are living in daily fear of the letter from the DWP telling them they are finally up for the ESA medical. People with chronic illnesses who are very sick being told they can work. People on dialysis being told they can work the four days a week they do not recieve it. These are the things that are going on. And Atos staff are being pushed by incentives to do this dirty work for your government.

Mr. Brown people are dying. A woman died in Camden recently because she did not have the help she needed to live even a basic existence. The young girl who recently killed herself over her failure to find a job. The poor mother who saw no way out and took her life and the life of her child.

I am terrified of what the Conservatives will mean for me and for this country but I cannot and will not vote for a party that when it had the chance chose to stick with the Ultra Blairite agenda, neo liberalism and demonizing of the poor.

You turned your back on your base, you betrayed us.

Thursday is going to be an electoral bloodbath – vote fraud permitting – but Brown’s still hanging on like grim death. He has said he’ll resign – but only when when he feels ‘he can’t be an effective leader of the Labour Party any more’.

When’s that then?

When one of his own candidates calls him the worst leader in parliamentary history?

“The loss of social values is the basic problem and this is not what the Labour Party is about,” Manish Sood, the Labour candidate for Norfolk Northwest told the local Lynn News. “I believe Gordon Brown has been the worst Prime Minister we have had in this country. It is a disgrace and he owes an apology to the people and the Queen.”

Election 2010’s going to make that 1997 Portillo moment look like a celebration.

As another Guardian commenter put it, “Go back to your constituencies and prepare for obscurity.”

The coming Tory coup

Liberal Conspiracy has the lowdown on how the Tories plan to sieze power in a hung parliament:

Here is what has now emerged as the Tory plan:

• Declare victory anyway.
• Have the party’s media allies strain every sinew to make that a self-fulfilling prophecy.
• Insist on being given the keys to number 10 without having to talk substantively to any other party first – to avoid a coalition or any substantive policy concessions.
• Make a partisan challenge to the civil service in seeking to overturn any existing constitutional convention or practice that might conceivably get in the way, or even slow this down a little.
• Threaten to drag the Monarchy into political controversy for partisan advantage, by challenging the conventions designed precisely to avoid this.
• Hold out against electoral reform, whatever the election result.
• Threaten apocalyptic political and financial meltdown if anybody disagrees.

The key objective of this strategy is to use the vociferous campaigning of the press – no doubt amplifying interventions from friends in the City – to argue that any negotiations between parties would be democratically illegitimate, without first putting the Conservatives into power, even (or especially) if Labour and the Liberal Democrats could between them muster a majority of both votes and Commons seats.

What does that remind you of? Me, it does the Republican coup of 2000, when the Supreme Court declared Bush the winner of the presidential election, even though Al Gore had actually won Florida by all counts. There you had the situation that the Republican administration in the state before the election did its best to purge the voters rolls of likely Democratic voters, then when the election became too close to call did its utmost best to stop recounts, going so far as to fly in a rentamob of Republican staffers to stop the count in Miami Dade county. This was paired to a media campaign in which Bush was presented as the obvious winner and the need to get a decision fast rather than making the right decision.

The more it’s become obvious some form of a hung parliament is going to be the outcome of Thursday’s elections, the more we’ve heard about both the mistrust of business in it as well as the need for a speedy resolution because “Britain needs firm, clear leadership”. These are of course obvious propaganda ploys to prepare the ground for a Tory coup. Obvious, since the experience in other European countries with coalition governments clearly says otherwise. Our own dear Holland after all is not some third world hellhole and is in fact weathering the crisis better than the UK so far, despite having had a long drawn out coalition process during it, followed by a fallen government not too long after it had finally been formed.

Meanwhile, as Palau posted last week, Labour is fond of a little election fiddling as well