Swine flu

I was somewhat surprised at the wall to wall hysteria about that outbreak of swine flu on display in the free newspapers here this morning. SARS and bird flu has us primed for worry about any novel flu epidemic, but is there really any reason to get so panicky about it? Especially when so far there haven’t been any Dutch cases whatsoever, nor all that many in Europe. So much tosh is talked about these “pandemics”, when the death rates even in Mexico are barely hitting three figures. It’s just embarassing how quickly we get paniced by these stories.

Some people may have ulterior motives for getting all het up about swine flu though, a certain kind of science fiction fan for example. Let Dr Elmo explain:

It is anthropologically interesting that SF fans are among the most eager hand-wringers. I think this is probably because it’s the kind of thing that allows an SF fan to demonstrate how Heinleinian they are–how prepared they are, how authoritative their flu kit is, how they reduce their chance of catching it, how exemplary is their (self!) treatment when they do catch it, compared to the mundanes, who are ignorant and incompetent.

Space is big

artistic impression of Pluto and Charon. From the New Horizons website

It’s hard to believe how far we are from anything else created by humankind. Except for our own, now-derelict third stage, nothing made by people or from the Earth — nothing — is within more than a billion miles of New Horizons.

From the latest news update of the New Horizons Project, NASA’s attempt to reach Pluto and the Kuiper Belt. The latter being the belt of Pluto sized planetoids at the edge of the classical Solar System. It’s some 30 to 55 Astronomical Units away; one AU being the distance from the Sun to the Earth, or about eight light minutes, or some 8 x 60 x 300,000 kilometres. Space is big, as Douglas Adams already noticed.

Space is not just big in distances, but also in time:

But you won’t have to wait another three years for our next significant distance and flight-time milestones — they come next year, when we cross the halfway point! But whenever quoting such milestones, I have to be careful about the meaning. So when will our spacecraft be halfway to Pluto? Well, that depends on which halfway you mean. (No, I am not kidding.)

  • If one asks, when have we traveled half the flight time to reach Pluto? That halfway milestone occurs on October 17, 2010.
  • But if one asks, when will we be half as far from the Sun as Pluto will be at the time of our encounter on July 14, 2015? That occurs somewhat earlier, on April 20, 2010.
  • And if one asks, when will we have traveled half the heliocentric distance to Pluto from our launch at Earth? That milestone occurs even earlier, on February 25, 2010.

So, as you can see, the answer to the halfway question depends on precisely what it means to be halfway. In fact, you could even ask when the halfway day was from New Horizons project inception on December 20, 2000, to Pluto arrival on July 14, 2015 — that was April 4, 2008. Or one could ask about the halfway day from when we began our push for a Pluto mission on May 4, 1989 (when we had our first meeting with NASA officials) until Pluto encounter — that was on June 9, 2002. So in some ways we’re already halfway there, and in other ways, we have well over a year to go to reach the halfway point.

In other words, any big deep space mission consumes a significant chunk of somebody’s career. Sure, a trip to Pluto is an extreme example, but even missions to our planetary neighbours like Mars or Venus require years of planning, preparation and monitoring.

Science fiction is too often impatient with these distances, zooming around the Galaxy through Hyperspace or Warp speed or whatever. It’s all so easy that real life space travel just seems unnecesarilly complex and difficult. Now I like a good space opera as much as the next guy, but I would like to see more attention paid to our own Solar System, because it is vastly more complex and big as Golden Age Science Fiction ever suspected. Surely it must be possible to write a good, exciting novel taking into account the realities of space travel rather than resorting yet again to shortcuts?

(Paul McAuley, from whose blog I plucked this link, has done his bit with The Quiet War, which makes full use of the latest research results on what our solar system actually looks like.)

Evolutionary psychologist is just another word for loon

Two years ago I blogged about Satoshi Kanazawa, an evolutionary psychologist who argued that Asians cannot make basic contributions to science, despite being, well, you know. Now if that wasn’t enough to completely destroy the already dodgy reputation of evolutionary biology, he’s upping his game this year. Not content with just slandering whole races, he’s now blogging on how much better the war on terror would’ve gone with president Coulter in charge:

Both World War I and World War II lasted for four years. We fought vast empires with organized armies and navies with tanks, airplanes, and submarines, yet it took us only four years to defeat them. … World War III, which began on September 11, 2001, has been going on for nearly seven years now, but there is no end in sight. There are no clear signs that we are winning the war, or even leading in the game. … Why isn’t this a slam dunk? It seems to me that there is one resource that our enemies have in abundance but we don’t: hate. We don’t hate our enemies nearly as much as they hate us. They are consumed in pure and intense hatred of us, while we appear to have PC’ed hatred out of our lexicon and emotional repertoire. We are not even allowed to call our enemies for who they are, and must instead use euphemisms like “terrorists.” … Hatred of enemies has always been a proximate emotional motive for war throughout human evolutionary history. Until now.

Here’s a little thought experiment. Imagine that, on September 11, 2001, when the Twin Towers came down, the President of the United States was not George W. Bush, but Ann Coulter. What would have happened then? On September 12, President Coulter would have ordered the US military forces to drop 35 nuclear bombs throughout the Middle East, killing all of our actual and potential enemy combatants, and their wives and children. On September 13, the war would have been over and won, without a single American life lost.

Is Satoshi Kanazawa for real?

Via Pharyngula comes this frankly bizarre, racist research paper, the abstract of which is below (emphasis mine):

Abstract: For cultural, social, and institutional reasons, Asians cannot make original contributions to basic science. I therefore doubt Miller’s prediction for the Asian future of evolutionary psychology. I believe that its future will continue to be in the United States and Europe.

Now since the author, Satoshi Kanazawa seems to be of Asian descent himself, it may be that this is some sort of weird April Fools joke or something, but he seems deadly serious. Looking at the list of publications in his biography, (as well as the original paper P.Z. Myers discovered) and it seems clear Kanazawa has his own agenda: to “prove” that differences in intelligence, health and income are determined by evolution and builtin differences between races/genders rather than the product of societal pressures. I may be doing Kanazawa a disfavour, but I don’t think so.

Thoughts?

The BBC’s Space Odyssey

Tonight the BBC finally broadcasted the first episode of a new documentary series, Space Odyssey, which had promised us a look at what a manned Grand Tour of the Solar System could be like and what wonders could be found on the way. The trailers had made it sound like the series would be equally about the technology behind the expedition and the planets the expedition would visit: Venus, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn and Pluto. S— wanted to see the latter most, I was hoping the former would be dominant; unfortunately we both were disappointed.

The actual series you see, is neither fish nor fowl: it’s part astronaut drama ala Apollo 13, part reality tv about five astronauts living together for six years and only part science documentary. The information about the visited planets is shoehorned in between shots of the astronauts adjusting to their circumstances and demonstrating zero-g and Tense, Dramatic Moments, with appropriate closeups of the people in Mission Control, of the expedition in Danger. Tension while contact is lost with the Venus lander! Excitement at a dust storm on Mars! More excitement at a very close approach of a binairy asteroid! And all with the obligatory, sweeping, over-intrusive violin music. It made S—wonder whether it was a PBS co-production, while I guessed it would be Discovery Channel; rightly as it turned out.

It certainly shares the flaws of other BBC/Discovery co-productions like The Future is Wild: good central concepts but bad execution, the emphasis on special effects and pretty pictures over science and imparting knowledge, the speculation presented as fact and the fact presented without a good context to make sense of it, but as trivia. And of course, the science errors.

Radio lag? Neither seen nor mentioned until the dramatic asteroid approach when suddenly the script requires a 38 minute lag; the previous tense moments were all witnessed live by Mission Control. Then there were the Venus and Mars landers, both of which looked roughly like souped up Moon landers. But the moon has an escape velocity of only 2.38 km/s, which can be reached even by a puny lander; for Mars, (5.027 km/s) and especially Venus (10.36 km/s) with an escape velocity not that much less than Earth’s, you need something more. You need the same sort of big fuckoff rocket on Venus that it takes to put two people into orbit on Earth, basically. Another thing that bothered me about the Venus sequence: the need for a tough astronaut suit was mentioned, to withstand the sheer pressure and noxious fumes there; so why the huge clear plastic faceplate?

Unfortunately, the technical realities behind the expedition, what it would take to actually do it in real life got even less mention than the planetary exploration. What I would’ve liked to see was an approach similar to that of The Blue Planet, where each program had two parts. With Blue Planet, you would first get the wonders and miracles of whatever part of the oceans it was this time, followed by an explenation of how these wonders and miracles were filmed and the technology and science behind it. That would’ve been much more interesting here too, especially if the programme’s makers hadn’t tried to cram everything into two episodes.

A failure then, but an interesting failure.