John Lanchester has written yet another brilliant article on the financial crisis for the London Review of Books. Much of the article deals with the RBS and how its takeover of ABN Amro led to disaster:
The consortium’s plan was to split ABN Amro up, with RBS getting the Anglo-American and wholesale parts of the business, Fortis the Belgo-Dutch, and Banco Santander the South American. It wasn’t in principle a ridiculous scheme, but the problem was the price. Most of what has been written about the financial crisis is pure hindsight, but not this: many observers thought that the winning consortium had overpaid. The consortium won their takeover on 10 October 2007; by April 2008, RBS was going to the markets to raise more capital, to cover losses from the deal; by July 2008, Fortis had lost two-thirds of its value and its CEO, Jean-Paul Votron, had resigned; on 28 September, Fortis was part-nationalised by the Dutch, Belgian and Luxembourgeois governments. We’ve already read what happened to RBS. So within months, the ABN Amro takeover destroyed RBS and Fortis and what was left of ABN Amro itself. Along with the AOL-Time Warner merger and the Daimler-Chrysler merger, the ABN Amro takeover is one of the biggest flops in corporate history.
There’s one person who could’ve avoided this mess, but didn’t, whose role in the whole debacle has never been fully acknowledged, not by the media and certainly not by him: the Dutch finance minister, Wouter Bos. Had he vetoed the takeover, or the earlier Barclays bid, ABN Amro, Fortis, Barclays and RBS would’ve been in much better shape now, perhaps not have needed the Dutch and British state to bail them out.