The collapse of the Dutch post-war consensus

Oh dear. The latest opinion polls do not look good for the government parties, with the social democrats in particular polling at a historic low point (link in Dutch/PDF). How did it get to be this way?

latest figures show a collapse in support for the centrist parties

Until about 2002 the Dutch political landscape was relatively uncomplicated. Power was shared between the social democrats (PvdA), liberals (VVD/D66) and Christian Democrats (CDA) in various centre right (CDA/VVD) or centre left (PvdA/CDA, PvdA/VVD/D66) coalitions, with a few smaller parties on the fringes for those who chose principles over power. Sure, there were times when several of the big three and a half (D66 being the half) parties were not on speaking terms, but on the whole it was a cozy and mutual profitable consensus. Even the exclusion of the Christian Democrats from power for most of the nineties –something that hadn’t happened before — did not really threaten the system.

But then came Fortuyn and the whole house of cards collapsed. As I explained at the time, Fortuyn’s party won the 2002 general elections through a combination of the voters being sick to the backteeth of the existing parties and their arrogance, the general dire economical and political situation making the party’s populist message attractive and a general wave of sympathy for the murdered Fortuyn. When the party went into government only to crash and burn completely, it looked at first as if the old consensus had re-established itself, but since then we’ve seen the rise of two more would-be Fortuyns, Geert “Islamophobe” Wilders and Rita “talks the talk but does not walk” Verdonk, both coincidently ex-members of the VVD. Especially the rise of Verdonk’s party, Trots op Nederland (Proud of Holland), is remarkable, getting 18 seats without having done anything at all. Verdonk has barely shown her face in parliament, prefering to go on begging tours of the country instead…

To draw longterm conclusions out of one poll is of course silly, but the polls have been trending this way for a year or so now and even if things will shake out differently at election time, it’s still a somewhat worrying development. Not so much the establishment parties losing their traditional voting base –they deserve it– but where those votes are going. Both Wilders and Verdonk play on a nascent xenophobia and Islamophobia that, if not quite unknown before 2001-02, only came into full flower after the September 11 attacks and the murders of Fortuyn and Theo van Gogh. Sentiments that had been taboo for decades (Islam as a violent religion, the need for all foreigners to integrate and learn Dutch, the usual stereotypes about workshy, criminal wifebeating minorities etc) went mainstream, were seriously debated by political commentators who, if pressed, would’ve called themselves leftwing. Don’t take my word for it, The European Commission against Racism and Intolerance said so too, earlier this year.

Meanwhile the options for the real left look bleak. Two years ago it looked likely that we’d see a genuinely leftist government in power, but as per usual the PvdA opted instead for the familiar and went with the Christian Democrats. Now this choice has brought them well deserved ruin, but the votes they lost are not picked up by the only genuinely socialist party in parliament, the SP. Instead the SP is losing the competition with Verdonk and Wilders for the populist vote, as the country is continuing its rightward drift.

In short term then things look bleak, but we shouldn’t panic. The SP needs to keep mounting a strong opposition against both the establishment and the populist right, keep holding to their principles and not go for the easy option of joining in the scaremongering. Currently Wilders and Verdonk are doing well because they don’t have to worry about anything but political point scoring. They’re not in power, they’re focused completely on parliament, not local government and therefore they can be as extreme as they like without suffering the consequences. Like Fortuyn’s party, these movements are likely to splinter once they do have to take on real responsibilities and inevitably have to compromise. Not a reason to be complacent and sit on our hands, but a reminder that things may look bleak now, but they won’t always remain so. The destruction of the old consensus opens opportunities for the left as well as the right.

Wilders in trouble –for copyright infringement?

wilders picking his nose

So Fitna debuted yesterday to an universal reception of yawns, though of course there was much navel gazing in the Dutch newspapers today. One thing everybody noticed is how little original material there was in the movie, much of it being news footage from various events like the September 11 attacks, the Madrid bombings etc. There was some speculation online on whether or not all those images were properly licensed. Well, we got our answer: The Danish cartoonist whose Mohammed cartoon was used in the opening and ending parts of Fitna is preparing to sue for copyright infringement:

The Danish Union of Journalists said Friday it will sue Dutch lawmaker Geert Wilders for copyright infringement for using a Danish cartoon of the Prophet Muhammad in his anti-Quran film.

The union said it will file a lawsuit on behalf of Kurt Westergaard, the cartoonist who made a controversial drawing in 2005 depicting Islam’s prophet wearing a turban shaped like a bomb.

“Wilders has the right to make his movie but he has no permission to use my drawing,” Westergaard said in a phone interview with Denmark’s TV2. Westergaard has been living under police protection since an alleged plot to murder him was uncovered last month.

“This has nothing to do with freedom of speech. It is all about copyright,” Westergaard said. “I won’t accept my cartoon being taken out of its original context and used in a completely different one.”

So if that wasn’t licensed, how much of the other images were? Was this perhaps why Wilders was asking his supporters to send money, earlier this week?

Fitna: attention seeking moron got his wish again

As I said earlier this week, if you follow this blog you should know Wilders by now for building a career by exploiting Islamophobia and drawing attention to himself with media stunts. The most recent of which being his anti-Islam movie, Fitna, which he had threatened to release since the middle of last year, but which only released an hour ago, via Liveleak. It had to be done that way because he couldn’t find any Dutch broadcaster to show it and his own website got taken off the air by his American provider. Actually, there was one broadcaster that did want to see it, but that was a Muslim broadcaster, who wanted to show it during an evening of debate with Wilders, but this was just a little bit too scary for him…

I don’t really want to pay too much attention to his silly little film, because it is nothing but the usual warmed over Islamophobic cliches. You know the drill: the Islam is threatening your freedom, it wants to subjugate the entire world and kill all the unbelievers, it leads to terrorism (cue images of the September 11 attacks) and so on. Bo-oring.

It’s just the impact this will have that I’m worried about. Not so much the inevitable reaction of Muslim hotheads, but there’s already a climate of fear and hatred surrounding Islam in the Netherlands and this movie is deliberately throwing oil on the fire. Wilders is intelligent enough to make use of the wave of unreasoning hatred that followed the September 11 attacks and the murder of Fortuyn to make his political career, so he should be intelligent enough to know his movie is one big lie. The question is, is he cynically using this lie just to further his career, or does he wants a Reichsdag fire? What’s he going to do with all the media attention coming his way?

A thought experiment

Last Saturday there was a big anti-Wilders demonstration in Amsterdam, which unfortunately had a disappointing turnout, partially due to the weather and partially due to crap organisation and promotion; I only heard about it on sunday. Wilders, as you should know if you’ve been following this blog for any length, is the Islamophobic bigot who has built a political career on stoking fear of and hatred of Muslims, soon to climax in the public showing of his anti-islam movie. He himself denies he’s a racist, that he has anything against Muslims –here largely people of Turkish or Moroccan descent– but that he just dislikes their religion as inherently backwards and evil. As you can imagine this has made him the darling of the sort of people who dislike “Islam” enough not to want Ayaan Hirsi Ali as their spokesperson.

Wilders enjoys the support of a frightingly large part of the Dutch population, not just the kind of racist Lonsdale wearing meatheads you’d think would be suggestable to a good bit of Islamophobia but also various kinds of more respectable people, including not a fair few media people. Free newsrag De Pers (motto: “free but not cheap”) for example can always be counted on to give him or his party a friendly hearing. Not that these people are racists of course, no they’re just frightfully concerned with the problems of integration and fanatical Islamism and if Wilders might be a bit too extreme in his rhetoric, at least he’s addressing these problems.

so some anonymous genius at Saturday’s demonstration had an idea: create a pamphlet with various Wilders soundbytes, but everytime he mentions “Muslims” or Ïslam” replace it with “Jews” or Jewry” and see what happens. The result? He got arrested. Which is odd when the same remarks about Muslims had never gotten Wilders into trouble with the police, despite numerous complaints …

It’s official: Holland is Islamophobic

So says the European Commission against Racism and Intolerance:

Geert Wilders

The new report from the European Commission against Racism and Intolerance said Islamophobia in the Netherlands has ‘increased dramatically’ since 2000. ‘The criminal justice system, and notably the police, still needs to enhance its role in monitoring and countering racially-motivated offences,’ the report said.

‘The tone of Dutch political and public debate around integration and other issues relevant to ethnic minorities has experienced ‘dramatic deterioration,’ the report say and goes on to warn of a ‘worrying polarisation between majority and minority communities’. It criticises the official approach to integration for focusing too much on the ‘perceived deficiencies’ among the minority population.

The Netherlands Muslims – around 6% of the population – face ‘stereotyping, stigmatising, outright racist political discourse and biased media portrayal,’ the report continues. Anti-semitism is also on the rise.

The report calls on the Dutch authorities to take the lead in promoting a public debate on integration that avoids ‘polarisation, antagonism, and hostility’. It calls on ministers to take steps to counter the use of ‘racist and xenophobic discourse in politics’ and review a number of policies which it says result in direct and indirect racial discrimination.

All of which, to be honest, isn’t news to me or anybody else who has paid attention to what has happened here in the last decade or so. If you’ve read this blog for a while you have seen me write about this before. That the report also singles out Geert Wilders is not a surprise either. Wilders entire career has been built on xenophobia. Which of course also means that there is an audience for his xenophobia, which is worrying.

More worrying is the general acceptance of Wilders and his followers. We’ve had periods of xenophobia before, most recently in the mid eighties when the economy had tanked and the extreme rightwing Centrumparty managed to get some seats in parliament by blaming guest workers. What’s different is that polticians and the media then formed a solid block against the racists, not giving them the “oxygen of publicity”, not working or even engaging with them in Parliament, etc. This time, not so much. Wilders gets a lot of publicity for his views and is largely treated as if what he says is or may be wrong, but within the boundaries of acceptable debate, with his more extreme remarks dismissed as publicity stunts.

I’ve long found this trend worrying, as it has moved the boundaries of what’s acceptable closer and closer to naked racism and xenophobia and has helped create a climate of intolerance in the Netherlands against Muslims and other “foreigners”, where just being a Muslim is reason for fear and suspicion. The attempts by the government to come to a burka ban are a symptom of this disease.

Hopefully this report will serve as something of a wakeup call for those politicians and journalists who have been content to disapprove of, but not oppose Wilders. If not, I fear we are heading for some of what happened in France two years ago…